Brutkey

Emeritus Prof Christopher May
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us

Are those worried about prospects of China invading Taiwan missing the logical direction of any Chinese expansionism?

Writing in th New World, Mette Skak, notes that Jon Lonergan has made the case that actually, given its geopolitical value (and its likely mineral wealth) China might more likely be looking to Siberia as a prospect for expansion (not least as they may have assessed Russia is too weak to defend the territory)....

Interesting... and not implausible

#China #Russia #politics

His rationale for this stark pronouncement was that conquering Siberia would be much less risky and far more geo-economically rewarding for China than going after Taiwan. On top of direct access to Siberia’s vast fossil fuel and mineral reserves, the uniquely deep freshwater reservoir of Lake Baikal offers the answer to China’s chronic and worsening water scarcity problem. As Lonergan also points out, the weakening of Russia’s military muscle from its crippling war against Ukraine may also influence Xi’s calculus. His prediction disregards the nuclear balance of terror between China and Russia, but even so it remains an outcome that cannot be excluded. It will become an even greater risk for the Kremlin if Putin’s hubris leads him to open a full-scale war against Europe and Nato. Putin and Xi seem to cherish their illiberal “partnership with no limits”, and most analysts expect China to simply slowly profit from Russia’s self-harming conduct. But the prospect of Siberian riches may one day tempt China to strike Russia in the back.
Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀🚀💙💙🌈🌈
@Lazarou@mastodon.social

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us a dear friend of mine moved to Taiwan and I'd like for him, his family and the 40 million other people to be left alone.

If I were playing a game of Civilisation I'd go for Siberia

Alex P Roe :mastodon:
@alex_p_roe@mastodon.world

@Lazarou@mastodon.social @ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us Siberia makes a lot of sense - it’ll probably remain cool while the rest of the world heats up, it’s got mineral resources and lots of space to rehouse people affected by ever increasing temperatures and, the icing on the cake is that the Ukraine war is weakening Russians not exactly high performing military significantly. Putin might even sell Siberia to the Chinese!