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His rationale for this stark pronouncement was that conquering Siberia would be much less risky and far more geo-economically rewarding for China than going after Taiwan. On top of direct access to Siberia’s vast fossil fuel and mineral reserves, the uniquely deep freshwater reservoir of Lake Baikal offers the answer to China’s chronic and worsening water scarcity problem. As Lonergan also points out, the weakening of Russia’s military muscle from its crippling war against Ukraine may also influence Xi’s calculus. His prediction disregards the nuclear balance of terror between China and Russia, but even so it remains an outcome that cannot be excluded. It will become an even greater risk for the Kremlin if Putin’s hubris leads him to open a full-scale war against Europe and Nato. Putin and Xi seem to cherish their illiberal “partnership with no limits”, and most analysts expect China to simply slowly profit from Russia’s self-harming conduct. But the prospect of Siberian riches may one day tempt China to strike Russia in the back.
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His rationale for this stark pronouncement was that conquering Siberia would be much less risky and far more geo-economically rewarding for China than going after Taiwan. On top of direct access to Siberia’s vast fossil fuel and mineral reserves, the uniquely deep freshwater reservoir of Lake Baikal offers the answer to China’s chronic and worsening water scarcity problem. As Lonergan also points out, the weakening of Russia’s military muscle from its crippling war against Ukraine may also influence Xi’s calculus. His prediction disregards the nuclear balance of terror between China and Russia, but even so it remains an outcome that cannot be excluded. It will become an even greater risk for the Kremlin if Putin’s hubris leads him to open a full-scale war against Europe and Nato. Putin and Xi seem to cherish their illiberal “partnership with no limits”, and most analysts expect China to simply slowly profit from Russia’s self-harming conduct. But the prospect of Siberian riches may one day tempt China to strike Russia in the back.
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