Thereβs an eye opening article in FT quoting Morgan Stanley about the size of the generative AI bubble developing.
https://www.ft.com/content/7052c560-4f31-4f45-bed0-cbc84453b3ce
βHyperscaler funding of $300bn to $400bn a year compares with annual capex last year for all S&P 500 companies of about $950bn.β
Paywallless: https://archive.ph/2025.07.30-135255/https://www.ft.com/content/7052c560-4f31-4f45-bed0-cbc84453b3ce
Tl;dr - if GenAI doesnβt pay off - as Morgan Stanley point out, it may not meet expectations - it will be 10 times higher than the previous bubble pop. π₯€
πΏ
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social POP goes the weasel.
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social please let it be this Friday at 16:40 Eastern time
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social
- The average person with a website will be able to buy used PCs, servers, GPUs and laptops for a reasonable price.
- The proerty can be used to house homeless and low income families that were put out of their rightful jobs by these datacentres.
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social this bit highlights the astonishing assumptions powering the AI bubble:
"The AI-capex cycle has been in motion for some time now, with hyperscaler spend alone going from ~ $125bn two years ago to ~$200bn in 2024, and expected by consensus/guidance to exceed $300bn in 2025. So far, internal cash flows from hyperscalers have been more than sufficient to match these requirements. Our equity analysts are optimistic about AI monetisation, and project that GenAI revenues could exceed $1tr by 2028, with close to 70% variable margins, compared to just $45bn in 2024."
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social thankfully that is primarily an American problem
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social welcome to the biggest short.
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social I especially like that there is a 45GW power shortfall for all the new datacentres in the US, and no one seems to know where that's going to come from. For context, that's about the size of the whole of the UK's generation.
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social theyβre going to try to get governments to bail them outβ¦
Β»Over the last six months, capital expenditures on AIβcounting just information processing equipment and software, by the wayβadded more to the growth of the US economy than all consumer spending combined.Β«
https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/the-ai-bubble-is-so-big-its-propping
Via https://mas.to/@carnage4life/114981125265704272
The economy is fine. Is it�
@GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Yeah, I'm honestly expecting that bubble popping to radically change the corporate landscape.
@briankrebs@infosec.exchange the good news is Morgan Stanley have a history of being right about emerging tech! /s
@OvertonDoors@infosec.exchange @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social ok, assuming the bubble is going to pop, what can you do to protect yourself?
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social that and so many hardworking people are going to be caught in the mess when the whole thing implodes
@psdavey@mastodon.social @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social legumes, rice, flour and freeze dried vegetables. Preferably in sealed mylar bags.
It's going to be difficult to short. If you had some way of monitoring short options that would be interesting and I'd be keen to know about as I generally stay away from casinos and day trading. So, not knowing the timing like Trump's inner circle of crypto-con-artists.... π€
I'd be I'll pressed to offer you a better answer.
My guess is it's going to happen early 27 as that will give the Project 2025 regime the necessary pretext for martial law.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social that and so many hardworking people are going to be caught in the mess when the whole thing implodes
@psdavey@mastodon.social @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social legumes, rice, flour and freeze dried vegetables. Preferably in sealed mylar bags.
It's going to be difficult to short. If you had some way of monitoring short options that would be interesting and I'd be keen to know about as I generally stay away from casinos and day trading. So, not knowing the timing like Trump's inner circle of crypto-con-artists.... π€ I'd be I'll pressed to offer you a better answer.
My guess is it's going to happen early 27 as that will give the Project 2025 regime the necessary pretext for martial law.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Yeah, but they already are, as the main goal of the AI rush is to fuck over the hardworking people anyway.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Yeah, but they already are, as the main goal of the AI rush is to fuck over the hardworking people anyway.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social true, but I think it'll be far larger a problem
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Short term, yes, but I think the bubble not popping and having the current trends continue would be much more damaging.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social true, but I think it'll be far larger a problem
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Short term, yes, but I think the bubble not popping and having the current trends continue would be much more damaging.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Short term, yes, but I think the bubble not popping and having the current trends continue would be much more damaging.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu don't get me wrong here, I'm not arguing that the bubble shouldn't collapse, but rather the sheer amount of harm that's going to happen when it does is going to be enormous.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io @GossiTheDog@cyberplace.social Short term, yes, but I think the bubble not popping and having the current trends continue would be much more damaging.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu don't get me wrong here, I'm not arguing that the bubble shouldn't collapse, but rather the sheer amount of harm that's going to happen when it does is going to be enormous.
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu don't get me wrong here, I'm not arguing that the bubble shouldn't collapse, but rather the sheer amount of harm that's going to happen when it does is going to be enormous.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu
The side effect is the goal. 
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu don't get me wrong here, I'm not arguing that the bubble shouldn't collapse, but rather the sheer amount of harm that's going to happen when it does is going to be enormous.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu
The side effect is the goal.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu
The side effect is the goal.
@thisismissem@hachyderm.io
@ainmosni@social.ainmosni.eu
The side effect is the goal.
Kevin Beaumont
