Kevin Rothrock@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange
Good on Alexander Baunov for being a rare analyst who draws on Moscow’s explicit geopolitical agenda when writing about potential peace in Ukraine. The only interpretation of Putin’s aims that limits Kyiv’s territorial concessions is restoring Western recognition for Russia’s Great Power status.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/08/putin-trump-alaska-summit?lang=ru¢er=russia-eurasia
Baunov is the first to admit that this gets quite fuzzy/yucky in practice, and he acknowledges that Russia’s war in Ukraine may have metastasized to Moscow’s idea of recognition’s “material expression.” Still, it’s a sharp insight that Trump’s greatest bargaining chip is status recognition.
How recognition plays out in practice is messy, of course. A Russian sphere of influence, obviously, where Moscow enjoys the “right to set conditions.” E. Europe certainly won’t welcome such arrangements, but it’s probably not unattractive to someone like Trump.