Thread | Brutkey

"The way I see it, during any given period the market is driven by a narrative, positive or negative. The current narrative is strongly driven by optimism about AI. And it takes a major shock to change a market narrative.'

And Krugman goes on to note that investment in AI data centres accounts for about half of all US economic growth in 2025.

AI winter is coming. And then there will be a depression. (NB: that's me, not Krugman.)
https://mastodon.social/@rbanffy/114981848940676725

redsakana
@redsakana@infosec.exchange

@cstross@wandering.shop It appears that a stopgap bullshit hype object has already been prepared: "Quantum". IIRC even Ursula von der Leyen has been bringing it up lately.

Compared to the previous hype cycle, it seems to me that "AI" roughly equals Bitcoin: problematic in many respects, but has technically interesting aspects, and more or less works for some applications (though not the most-hyped ones).

"Quantum" would then be the new NFT: to anyone with half a brain obviously 100% scam from the start. But there are a lot of retail investors with less than half and even more people who would like to rip them off.

Charlie Stross
@cstross@wandering.shop

@redsakana@infosec.exchange A bit different, I think, but quantum computing still has a rotten whiff of hype without substance.

redsakana
@redsakana@infosec.exchange

@cstross@wandering.shop Yes, technically it (probably) could work, but at the moment it definitely _doesn't_ work for any actual application, but looks like it's gonna get whipped up into a new tulipmania anyway if the "AI" hype train falls apart too soon.

So like NFT with regard to the current state of the art/production-readiness (boosters gonna claim it's actually working already in "secret labs" or will be great in 6 months at the latest so INVEST NOW), though not necessarily in absolute terms.