Kevin Rothrock
Kevin RothrockZelensky’s negotiating position has reportedly “softened”: He told European leaders that Russia could be allowed to retain “some of the land it has taken,” ie, “de facto control of the territory it occupies in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/11/ukraine-prepared-freeze-war-current-frontline-summit/
Kevin RothrockFT investigation finds building activity at Euro arms sites in “overdrive” (“rearmament on a historic scale”), but “long-range strike capabilities remain a serious issue for Europe/NATO more broadly, as Russia is outpacing its adversaries.” Missiles = the precondition for NATO’s theory of victory.” https://www.ft.com/content/ce617187-43ed-4bec-aebf-b1b346c4cfb1
Kevin RothrockWith today’s Meduza newsletter, I threw in a few summaries of trending/curious stories appearing on popular Z-channels on Telegram. (Lots of talk of Russian activity north of Pokrovsk, around Dobropillia.) Also, there’s a roundup of Anglophone reporting on Russia.
https://meduza.io/en/pages/newsletter
Kevin RothrockWithout identifying anybody, Finland says it’s charged the captain & two crew members of an oil tanker on suspicion of sabotage in relation to cutting undersea cables. The alleged Russian “shadow fleet” tanker was released in March and escorted back into int’l waters. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/world/europe/finland-cable-severing-charges-russia-shadow-fleet.html
Kevin RothrockSocial scientists stress me out. Just once, I want a PhD to cite a large-n study and the theoretical underpinnings of how great it feels to slip on a new pair of socks.
Kevin RothrockAn expected high temp of 66°F this Friday in Anchorage. Sounds nice. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/us/politics/trump-putin-alaska-reaction.html
Kevin RothrockRussia's envoy/negotiator to the U.S. on Ukraine is spitting some pretty saucy Internet trolling today. His mood appears to be good.
Kevin RothrockThrough superior drone employment, systematic attacks on Ukrainian logistics, and tightening sieges, Russia is achieving its largest advances on the frontlines since November 2024, according to data from ISW. https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-08-11/russia-achieves-its-largest-advance-on-the-frontlines-in-ukraine-since-2024.html
Kevin RothrockRosneft’s Saratov refinery has stopped oil intake following a Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend. "Its prolonged halt could affect domestic gasoline supplies just as demand for the fuel is seeing seasonal growth momentum.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/rosneft-s-refinery-in-volga-region-halts-oil-intake-after-attack?embedded-checkout=true
Kevin Rothrock“China beats you with trade. Russia beats you with war.”
Odd how Trump fluctuates between talking about Russian KIA losses, possibly inflating them wildly, describing the war as unsustainable for Moscow, and then later he characterizes Russia as an unbeatable horde.
Kevin RothrockThat said, I think Trump correctly predicts that Russia will beat Ukraine with war, and China will defeat the U.S. with trade.