You get answers that sound like they're based on solid reasoning, yet aren't. But you get people who base important decisions and even values on it. It's undermining critical thinking skills. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
I'm really worried that we're headed toward a world where we don't have entry-level jobs that train younger people to be experienced and senior people. We're seeing a tiny effect already (which media overstates), but we're on that path. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
The best analog is autocorrect -- that's really all these systems do. And that has value, but just letting it do stuff for you is nuts. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
You get answers that sound like they're based on solid reasoning, yet aren't. But you get people who base important decisions and even values on it. It's undermining critical thinking skills. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
You win a virtual Darwin award if you give an AI agent access to your life. (Context: people losing their entire wallet trying to do crypto trading with AutoGPT) – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
The best analog is autocorrect -- that's really all these systems do. And that has value, but just letting it do stuff for you is nuts. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
AI has a sim-to-real problem; it's easy to make something that works in a lab or a simulation, but the real world is a lot messier. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
You win a virtual Darwin award if you give an AI agent access to your life. (Context: people losing their entire wallet trying to do crypto trading with AutoGPT) – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
"Coding agents are the best agents... [but] coding agents have huge security problems" – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
AI has a sim-to-real problem; it's easy to make something that works in a lab or a simulation, but the real world is a lot messier. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
I had to raise my probability of doom because it would take a person with arbitrarily large amounts of money being involved in AI in a sloppy manner... and then I realized that guy is here and doing that. But I'm still only at 3%, because humans are resilient – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
"Coding agents are the best agents... [but] coding agents have huge security problems" – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
example: anybody can put an agent demo together, then in the real world it deletes your database. There's so many edge cases in any interesting problem that getting to competence is a 10-year problem rather than a 6-month problem – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
I had to raise my probability of doom because it would take a person with arbitrarily large amounts of money being involved in AI in a sloppy manner... and then I realized that guy is here and doing that. But I'm still only at 3%, because humans are resilient – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
The world favors bold predictions over accurate predictions; which means you have to be skeptical. It's easy to make an "80% demo" of just about anything, but that last 20% is often very hard. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
example: anybody can put an agent demo together, then in the real world it deletes your database. There's so many edge cases in any interesting problem that getting to competence is a 10-year problem rather than a 6-month problem – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
OpenAI is a great example: selling stock at a $500B valuation with no clear path to making any kind of profit. It's a form of performance art – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
The world favors bold predictions over accurate predictions; which means you have to be skeptical. It's easy to make an "80% demo" of just about anything, but that last 20% is often very hard. – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
Musk figured out that you can make wild AI promises and get money whether those promises are accurate or not. He said every year we're on the cusp of ubiquitous driverless cars, but we're actually not all that close (even if we'll get there eventually) – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
OpenAI is a great example: selling stock at a $500B valuation with no clear path to making any kind of profit. It's a form of performance art – Gary Marcus #BHUSA #LivePost
Darren Meyer :donor: